The James Anderson factor

In the last couple of years Anderson has been the most-feared new-ball bowler in ODIs, but over the course of an entire innings South Africa have been the best bowling unit

James Anderson averages 16.40 at an economy rate of 3.22 when bowling in the first ten overs of ODIs over the last couple of years

One of the key features of the 2011 World Cup was the number of overs bowled by spinners. In 49 matches, they bowled 1983.3 overs; the previous-highest in a World Cup was 1350, in 51 matches in the 2007 tournament in the West Indies. Spinners bowled plenty of overs with the new ball too - 402.2 within the first 15 overs of an innings, up from 86.2 in 2007, and 105 in 2003.
In 2015, though, things are likely to be different. With two new balls around, and pitches which offer a little more pace and bounce, fast bowlers are likely to be more influential, especially at the start of the innings. Teams with a more potent new-ball attack should be able to impose themselves on matches more often, and in that aspect, England should be well served this time around, with James Anderson leading the way.
In 2011, England were the least incisive team with the new ball, among the top sides. They managed seven wickets within the first ten overs, conceding 54.57 runs per wicket, and 5.45 runs per over. In terms of average and economy rate, the only side that did worse than England was Netherlands, taking four wickets at 86.75 and an economy rate of 5.78 runs per over. South Africa were the most incisive bowling team in the first ten, taking 14 wickets at 22.14, while Pakistan were the most economical, conceding 3.71 per over. England were far away from those benchmarks on both counts. Tim Bresnan was the only England bowler to make a mark with the new ball, taking four of England's seven wickets, at an average of 22.50. Anderson took a solitary wicket, conceding 93 runs in 17 overs, while Stuart Broad went wicketless, conceding 47 in eight overs. James Tredwell, the offspinner, picked up two wickets in two overs.
In the two years leading to this World Cup, though, England have been the best bowling team in the first ten overs, taking 79 wickets at an average of 28.54, marginally better than South Africa's 76 wickets at 28.82. Anderson has been at the forefront of England's new-ball attack, taking 22 wickets in 112 overs at an average of 17, a far cry from one wicket in 17 overs during the 2011 World Cup.
England's problem - and South Africa's advantage - has been their bowling in the rest of the innings. In the middle overs (between the 11th and 40th), they concede almost 40 runs per wicket, which is among the highest of all teams, while in the last ten they go at more than eight runs per over, worse than all teams except Zimbabwe. South Africa, on the other hand, average less than 30 runs per wicket in the middle overs, and concede 6.91 per over in the last ten, the best among all teams.
Chris Woakes has been England's most regular bowler in the death overs, and has taken 15 wickets in 222 balls, but has also conceded 336 runs, an economy rate of 9.08 per over. Bresnan, Broad and Steven Finn have all gone at more than 8.3, and they've all contributed to England's poor economy rate at the end of an innings.
South Africa, on the other hand, have had three outstanding bowlers at the death: Dale Steyn has taken 15 wickets at an average of 18 and economy rate of 6.94, Morne Morkel has 20 wickets at an economy rate of 7.16, and Imran Tahir's ten wickets have come at an average of 20.20 and an economy rate of 5.29.

Break-up of bowling stats for teams since Jan 2013

		First 10 overs		10.1 to 40		Last 10 overs
Team	Inngs	Average	Econ rate	Average	Econ rate	Average	Econ rate
England	50	28.54	4.51	39.40	5.21	24.53	8.02
South Africa	51	28.82	4.29	29.55	4.95	18.47	6.91
Sri Lanka	68	30.93	4.54	33.90	5.11	23.02	7.60
Australia	47	33.47	4.46	32.71	5.06	20.42	7.32
West Indies	42	33.66	4.57	41.30	5.15	24.05	7.46
New Zealand	43	35.46	4.45	37.49	5.29	18.67	7.62
Bangladesh	27	36.32	4.66	29.57	4.90	30.17	7.88
Pakistan	52	36.55	4.56	34.47	4.64	23.62	7.45
India	60	37.63	4.57	32.45	5.00	22.58	7.29
Zimbabwe	29	51.04	4.40	46.65	4.93	28.01	8.21

All of those numbers in the second part of an innings combine to make South Africa the best bowling team over the last couple of years: they average 27.72 runs per wicket, almost four runs fewer than the next-best side. They are also one of only two teams to concede less than five runs per over. Clearly, their ability to perform well at all stages of an innings makes them especially formidable, as it's a skill that some of the other teams lack.

Overall bowling stats for teams in ODIs since Jan 2013

Team	Matches	Wickets	Average	Econ rate	Str rate
South Africa	53	410	27.72	4.95	33.5
Australia	47	318	31.41	5.11	36.8
India	62	447	31.78	5.17	36.8
Bangladesh	27	174	32.57	5.10	38.3
Sri Lanka	69	455	32.63	5.19	37.7
New Zealand	44	310	32.87	5.35	36.8
England	51	352	33.36	5.33	37.5
Pakistan	52	351	33.43	4.91	40.7
West Indies	42	266	36.35	5.25	41.4
Zimbabwe	30	165	44.28	5.25	50.5

Coming back to the first ten overs, it's obvious that England have a champion performer in Anderson. His ability to swing the new ball both ways with no discernible change in action, plus his impeccable control against both right and left-handers makes him a handful, especially in favourable conditions. Among the top wicket-takers in the first ten overs in ODIs over the last couple of years, Anderson's numbers stand out. He averages 16.40 at an economy rate of 3.22, while the next best average is 25, and the next best economy rate 4.1.
The other England bowlers aren't in the same league: Finn has 11 wickets in the first ten overs at 33, Chris Woakes has eight at 39.50, and Broad has seven at 40.70. The gulf between Anderson and the other England bowlers was again painfully apparent in the tri-series in Australia over the last couple of weeks: in the four matches he played, Anderson took 3 for 52 from 20 overs in the first ten - an average of 17.33, and economy rate of 2.60; the other England bowlers - Woakes, Broad and Finn - had combined figures of 1 for 176 from 30 overs.

Bowlers with the most wickets in the first 10 overs in ODIs since Jan 2013*

Bowler	Overs	Wickets	Average	Run rate	Str rate
Mohammad Irfan	162.0	28	25.28	4.37	33.52
Nuwan Kulasekara	159.5	24	27.45	4.12	39.96
James Anderson	112.0	22	16.40	3.22	30.55
Bhuvneshwar Kumar	202.0	22	37.90	4.24	52.70
Lasith Malinga	116.2	20	26.35	4.53	33.24
Jason Holder	112.2	18	28.00	4.48	35.47
Clint McKay	115.5	16	29.06	4.01	38.61
Mohammed Shami	129.0	16	36.06	4.47	48.38

The opening-partnership stats against each team is further indication that facing England's new-ball attack - Anderson, particularly - is one of the most challenging tasks for an opening pair. The average opening partnerships are the least against England and South Africa, while it's one of the highest against India.
For opposition teams, the message when playing England is clear: while Finn was excellent in a couple of games against India in the tri-series, the consistent threat in the line-up is Anderson. See him off, and especially in the first ten overs, and life will get considerably easier thereafter.

Opening partnership stats versus each team since Jan 2013

Opposition	Inngs	Ave stand	Run rate	100/ 50 stands
Zimbabwe	30	49.63	4.67	6/ 5
India	60	39.90	4.89	6/ 11
West Indies	42	39.28	4.96	3/ 8
Australia	47	37.62	5.21	6/ 8
Bangladesh	27	35.57	4.96	2/ 5
New Zealand	43	33.88	4.92	1/ 14
Pakistan	52	32.44	4.87	3/ 9
Sri Lanka	68	29.97	4.93	3/ 10
England	50	28.78	4.97	3/ 5
South Africa	51	28.01	4.70	2/ 7

Some numbers were changed in the table to exclude extras (lb, b) which had been attributed to the bowlers.